Jays From the Couch brings you the latest Toronto Blue Jays news & links. This time: (Playoff) Odds & K-END-ryS
So, things have been pretty disappointing for the Toronto Blue Jays. It certainly hasn’t slowed down any keyboards as the hot takes keep coming. Let’s dive into the latest rumblings.
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* At The Ringer, Michael Baumann examines the playoff odds for teams off to a slow start. Since many folks are trumpeting how hard it is to make the playoffs when you start a season 1-6 – even though there are 5 1/2 months of games to go – this piece offers up a more interesting look at the numbers. The Negative Nellys will tell you that lost April games impact whether you play October ones, so these losses can sink a season.
Baumann refers to Baseball Prospectus and their usage of PECOTA projections to provide running odds for each team. As of game time Wednesday, the Blue Jays were looking at a projected win total of just 78.2, a 9.8% shot at the Wild Card game and a 17.1% shot at playoffs in general. So, all is not lost yet.
* And, yet, that doesn’t stop Jon Morosi from going on Sportsnet and raising alarms. Apparently, Morosi feels that the club should be worried and they could be in trouble. He says: “The fact is when you start this poorly it’s really hard to catch up, especially in a division like this. These were games the Jays had been winning for a year-and-a-half, almost two full years going back to ’15 and ’16 but this lineup has not been itself for months now. I think we’re seeing a residue of what was an uneven spring. That is not the fault of anyone in particular—it’s certainly not John Gibbons’ fault—it just is the reality of where this team is.”
While it would be easy to agree with these comments – after all, the bats are aging – but there really is no evidence that this club cannot perform at the level we have come to expect. That level certainly isn’t where they are now, no matter what Morosi says. The “reality of where this team is” comment is just not true…unless Morosi is referring to where the club is at this very moment in time…in April…fewer than 10 games played…maybe Joe Siddall is right and we really shouldn’t be talking about these things until May, at least.
*If the Blue Jays are going to turn things around, they’ll need Kendrys Morales to continue doing what he’s been doing thus far. He’s been using his bat to endear himself to the fanbase. And, manager John Gibbons is quick to sing his praises. Melissa Couto of the Canadian Baseball Network brings us some rather nice comments from the skipper about his DH.
Gibby thinks that Morales will have a “monster year” for Toronto. He’s a firm believer in the addition of the slugging Cuban. He went on to discuss what was mentioned on Wednesday’s TV broadcast- that Morales is a “probably one of the most happy guys you’ll come across. Every day he’s one of the first guys here and he’s got a smile on his face. He really appreciates what he has and what he’s doing and I guarantee that’s a big part of his success.”
*At Global News, Sarah Hay shares a neat little story about a long time Blue Jays employee. The story of Sheila Stella, the director of executive and promoter ticketing is one that we wouldn’t normally hear about. Apparently, Stella started way back when the team played out of Exhibition Stadium and she had to type letters to season ticket holders by hand.
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