Jays From the Couch explores how the Blue Jays could improve their Draft Slot by handing the New York Yankees a sweep in the final series of 2017
This is a fun piece and not to be taken too seriously. Just a conversation piece.
The Toronto Blue Jays and the Baltimore Orioles each a have share of the American Leauge East basement. The O’s and Blue Jays each face off against division rivals to close out the 2017 season with a 3-game weekend series. There is a scenario in which the Blue Jays could actually finish 3rd in the American League East but I want to paint a different, more convoluted, picture.
Instead of Toronto going into Yankee Stadium looking for a sweep and hoping the O’s are able to take 2-of-3 from the Tampa Bay Rays, what if Toronto tanks?
As it currently stands, there are 11 teams with records worse than Toronto’s 75-84. Of those 11 teams, 7 have records which are so bad they don’t factor into this discussion. Those 7 teams and their record are Detroit Tigers (62-96), San Francisco Giants (62-97), Philidelphia Phillies (64-95), Chicago White Sox (65-93), Cinncinati Reds (67-91) New York Mets (69-90), and San Diago Padres (70-89). The Atlanta Braves (71-87) would actually make it 8 teams but with a 4-game series to end the season, Atlanta could actually tie Toronto’s record.
That leaves me with 4 teams with records similar but worse than the Blue Jays. Obviously, Atlanta is one. The Miami Marlins (74-84), Oakland Athletics (73-85), and Pittsburgh Pirates (73-85) are the others. There are 3 teams of interest which a Blue Jays sweep over the Yankees would actually negatively affect Toronto’s Draft Position. They are the O’s, Rays (76-82), and Texas Rangers (76-82).
At the time of writing this piece, Toronto is currently tied with the O’s for the 13th worse record in baseball for 2017. Using the 2017 Draft Slot bonus structure Toronto would have $8, 231,000 in next year’s draft, which is the position they occupied during the 2017 draft. In a perfect world, which I will outline below, Toronto could fall to 8th or 9th (depending on how tiebreakers go).
Once again, using last year’s bonus structure, a drop of 4 slots would provide the Blue Jays with an extra $1,650,200 to spend in next year’s draft. As you will see from the series outlined below, it is impossible for Toronto to chase down the 8th spot thanks to a Marlins/Braves series.
Here are the series of interest. Remember, we are looking at these series expecting a Yankees sweep of the Blue Jays; therefore, the Blue Jays would finish with a record of 75-87.
O’s (75-84) Vs. Rays (76-82)
The O’s are 3-7 in their past 10 and the Rays are 4-6. Both teams have struggled in September but we are looking for the O’s to take at least one game from the Rays in this 3 game set. Worst case, the Rays sweep the O’s and Toronto takes one from the Yankees.
Marlins (74-84) Vs. Braves (95-63)
The Marlins and Braves face off for a 4-game weekend series. The Braves are 4-6 and Marlins are 5-5 in their last 10 games. Toronto is hoping for, at a minimum, a Marlins/Braves split, Miami will finish with 76 wins which is good for Toronto. A Braves sweep would tie them with Toronto and keep the Marlins below Toronto.
A’s (73-85) Vs. Rangers (76-82)
In this 4-game set, Toronto is looking for the A’s to take 3-of-4 from the Rangers. This would push the A’s to a 76-86 record and keep the Rangers ahead of Toronto in the standings. The A’s are on fire right now with an 8-2 record in their last 10; whereas, the Rangers have gone 4-6 in their last 10 games.
Pirates (73-85) Vs Nats (95-63)
This isthe long long long shot of the bunch. The Pirates need to take 3-of-4 from the Nats. It’s highly unlikely but possible. My hope is that Washington will rest their regular while setting up their rotation for a long playoff run. This will allow the Pirates to steal three wins.
I hope you all enjoyed playing along. Truth be told, I don’t care what the Blue Jays, or any other team, does this weekend. While an extra $1.6M in spending money would be great to have during the 2018 Draft. I feel it is more important to draft well in your slot. Like my boy, Roy said, “Pick the Trout and not the Henson.” Couldn’t agree more Roy.
I think that Toronto will do their best to stick it to New York and finish the season strong. After all, if they cared about their Draft Slot soooooo much they shouldn’t have waited for the final weekend to tank.
FYI- The Giants and Tigers, whichever finish with the worst record, will have over 14M to spend at next year’s draft.
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