Jays From the Couch continues counting down our 2016 Blue Jays Top Prospects List with 2012 Draft Pick, Mitch Nay
At Jays From the Couch we continue our 2016 Blue Jays Top Prospects List. The list can be found HERE. It includes the 4 parts of our Honrable Mentions as well as #15, Clinton Hollon. In at #14 was Lupe Chavez. Moving on, we present #13, Mitch Nay.
The Tarzana, California native, who received a $884K signing bonus, has been progressing one step at a time over the last few seasons. Ending 2015 in Dunedin, the former Top 10 prospect has seen his value take a dip. Falling behind others in a draft class that included Marcus Stroman, Addison Russell, Corey Seager and Michael Wacha, Nay has seen his power bat lose some of its allure in 2015.
DOB: Sept 20, 1993
Bats: R Throws: R
Baseball America has been back and forth on Nay as a prospect. After 2012, he was ranked 24th in the Blue Jays system. Then, after 2013, he was 4th until the end of 2014 when he sank to 16th. And, in their post 2015 rankings, Nay remains out of the Top 10.
The falling in rankings is likely due to the power potential not really translating to on field production. 2015 was a bit of a rough season for Nay in that he only put up 5 HR and 19 doubles that translated to an ISO of .110. He hit .243/..303/.353 thanks to a walk rate of 7.3% and a whiff rate of 17.2%, which is better than his 2014 rate of 22.5%. If you were to look at his last 3 seasons, you would see declining average, OBP and SLG numbers. Obviously, these numbers are trending in the wrong direction.
Thanks to MLBFarm.com, his offense can be broken down to provide some very interesting (and bleak) visuals:
This gives us an idea as to Nay’s performance. He’s not making a lot of hard contact, as evidenced by his low line drive totals. As well, he’s been hit by pitches as many times as he’s hit home runs. These are just a couple of examples of his struggles.
While power alone is not the only aspect of a player’s game, Nay’s calling card hasn’t been offset by contributions in other ways. His wRC+ numbers have also been declining. And, his Steamer projections for next season do not look promising. And, at 22, he’s going to need a turn around season to prove these projections wrong.
On the defensive side of things, Nay has been a work in progress as well. In 295 games at third base, he’s committed 57 errors.
Outlook for 2016:
Needless to say, Nay has not seen the kind of success that the Blue Jays might have been hoping for. The power potential that got him drafted has not panned out as of yet. You can expect to see him start the season in Dunedin again. Unless he turns things around, he’ll be in tough to see a promotion. That is not to say that it is out of the realm of possibility. But, realistically speaking, he is seeing his stock sink further. He is young, so there is time for development. But, his offensive approach is going to need some attention.
ETA: At this point it is tough to guess a MLB ETA. If his approach changes, he is still likely 2-3 years away. His power potential is there, but it needs to shine through for him to take those steps toward the big leagues.
*Featured Image Credit: Buck Davidson Under CC BY-SA 2.0
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Shaun Doyle is a long time Blue Jays fan and writer! He decided to put those things together and create Jays From the Couch. Shaun is the host of Jays From the Couch Radio, which is highly ranked in iTunes, and he has appeared on TV and radio spots.