2016 Blue Jays Projections: Ryan Goins

Jays From the Couch will look at projections made for Blue Jays  2nd baseman/utility infielder Ryan Goins 2016 season

When the Blue Jays’ 2015 season started, expectations for Ryan Goins weren’t very high. Then Devon Travis ran away with the starting 2nd base job in the spring and those expectation took a nosedive.

When the oft injured Jose Reyes, once again, landed on the disabled list, Ryan Goins was happy to step in. Unfortunately, Ryan’s hitting woes and inability to get on base continued to overshadow his play in the field.

Goins played 66 games in the first half, batting .226 with 12 walks and 37 strikeouts while producing 31 singles, 8 doubles, 2 triples, 2 home runs, 20 runs and 24 RBI. Many a Blue Jays fan accepted this level of production from their glove man, considering his walks were up and strikeouts were down from his career numbers.

Then came the All-Star break. Devon Travis and Jose Reyes were both getting healthy. That’s when hitting coach Brook Jacoby approached Goins about making adjustments at the plate to assist his transitions back to a utility player.

The adjustments made were simple. It was as simple as resting the barrel of the bat on his shoulder. The adjustment accomplished many things, it shortened Ryan’s swing, which allowed him to get a better look at pitches, which allowed him to be more selective at the plate which allowed him to work deeper into counts, which allowed him to work the pitcher into more hitters counts and walk more.

Adjusting a batter’s stance and approach at the plate, no matter how small or ‘simple’, is a major undertaking. Ryan Goins should be commended for the work he put in to making this simple adjustment.

In the 58 games after the All-Star break, he batted .274 and hit 38 singles, 8 doubles, 2 triples, 3 home runs, 32 runs, 21 RBI while amassing 27 walks and 46 strikeouts.

The adjustments made allowed Ryan to more than double his walks which increased his runs scored. Goins also didn’t exhibit any loss of power, hitting the same number of extra base hits with an extra home run.

This article will look at projections from ZiPS, Steamer and Fans which can be found on Fangraphs.com.

ZiPS-  In 517 plate appearances, Ryan is projected to hit a 111 singles, 22 doubles, 3 triples, 5 HR, scoring 47 runs and driving 48 runs. ZiPS doesn’t project walks or strikeouts.

Steamer- In 85 games, Ryan is projected to .240 with 72 singles, 14 doubles, 2 triples, 3 HR with 32 runs scored and 29 RBI. Steamer doesn’t expect Goins new found plate discipline to carry over to 2016 with 6.1 BB% and 20.3 K%.

Fans (22)- In 109 games, Goins is projected to hit .253 with 93 singles, 17 doubles, 2 triples, 5 HR with 41 runs and 38 RBI. Fans project Goins to repeat his late season success with 8.6 BB% and 19.2 K%.

Heading into the 2016 season Ryan Goins is likely to assume the role of starting 2nd baseman….until Devon Travis is healthy enough to re-assume the starting role sometime in May. Goins will also see time at short giving Troy Tulowitzki a day off or two. With Tulo’s injury history, Goins should see a little more time at short than a day or two, but it is unlikely that he will see the 109 games that Fans (22) projects.

The amount of playing time Goins will see in 2016 is directly correlated with how pitchers adjust to the adjustments he made around the 2015 All-Star break. Blue Jays fans should expect Goins’ production somewhere closer to the projections made by Steamer than Fans or ZiPS projections.

*FEATURED IMAGE CREDIT:  KEITH ALLISON UNDER CC BY-SA 2.0

 

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Shaun Doyle

Shaun Doyle is a long time Blue Jays fan and writer! He decided to put those things together and create Jays From the Couch. Shaun is the host of Jays From the Couch Radio, which is highly ranked in iTunes, and he has appeared on TV and radio spots.