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The Blue Jays, QO and Steven Matz Win-Win

The Toronto Blue Jays extending a Qualifying Offer to Steven Matz would be in the everyone’s best interest


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The fact that the Jays will extend qualifying offers to both Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien are all but foregone conclusions. However they should also offer a qualifying offer to Steven Matz, and he may just take it!

 

From the Blue Jays perspective, if Matz rejects the qualifying offer they will obtain a much coveted draft pick as compensation. However, this should not be the purpose of the QA from the Jays perspective. They should make the QO because they want him to accept. Now granted the QO is expected to be in the 19-20 million dollar range and this is more than Matz is worth per year but paying a pitcher like Matz a few million extra on a one year deal should not be an issue at all for a large market team like the Blue Jays.

 

Standard Pitching
Year Age Tm W L ERA GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP WHIP
2015 24 NYM 4 0 2.27 6 35.2 34 9 4 10 34 3.61 1.234
2016 25 NYM 9 8 3.40 22 132.1 129 50 14 31 129 3.39 1.209
2017 26 NYM 2 7 6.08 13 66.2 83 45 12 19 48 5.05 1.530
2018 27 NYM 5 11 3.97 30 154.0 134 68 25 58 152 4.62 1.247
2019 28 NYM 11 10 4.21 30 160.1 163 75 27 52 153 4.60 1.341
2020 29 NYM 0 5 9.68 6 30.2 42 33 14 10 36 7.76 1.696
2021 30 TOR 14 7 3.82 29 150.2 158 64 18 43 144 3.79 1.334
7 Yr 7 Yr 7 Yr 45 48 4.24 136 730.1 743 344 114 223 696 4.34 1.323
162 162 162 11 12 4.24 33 179 182 84 28 55 171 4.34 1.323
                             
NYM NYM NYM 31 41 4.35 107 579.2 585 280 96 180 552 4.49 1.320
TOR TOR TOR 14 7 3.82 29 150.2 158 64 18 43 144 3.79 1.334
                             
NL ( NL ( NL ( 31 41 4.35 107 579.2 585 280 96 180 552 4.49 1.320
AL ( AL ( AL ( 14 7 3.82 29 150.2 158 64 18 43 144 3.79 1.334
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/10/2021.
 

If Matz accepts the offer the Jays assure themselves of his services for the upcoming season which takes some pressure off the organization to acquire another starter. Furthermore, the fact that this is a one year deal should not preclude them from making another addition to the rotation should they be able to do so (and they should still try to do that even with Matz signed to a contract). Securing another year of control over a very good pitcher very early in the off season is worth a lot to a team like the Jays.

 

From Matz’ perspective given his inconsistent pitching history he may be interested in taking the QO if he feels like betting on himself, as a second consecutive very good year will help him secure a much bigger contract next year (with no possibility of a QO attached to him). This is in addition to the large one year payday the QO assures him. Kevin Gausman did last year by accepting the QO and staying with the Giants.

 

Furthermore, with the uncertainty surrounding the new collective bargaining agreement Matz, if offered a QA, may decide to negotiate a similar contract amount with the Jays which includes a large signing bonus as a way to ensure he still gets some serious cash in the event of a work stoppage.

 

In conclusion there is no downside to the Blue Jays offering Matz the qualifying offer as there is no such thing as a bad one year contract. It may be an overpay by a few million, but they can afford it next year for sure. There is also a few very good reasons for Matz to accept as it will secure a very good payday for him in 2022 and allows him to earn a larger multi-year deal next year that may not be in the offering this time around.

 

 

 

*Featured Image Courtesy Of DaveMe Images. Prints Available For Purchase.

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JCMac

Jason C MacDonald has been a Blue Jays fan since the late 1980’s.  His lifelong passion for Baseball and the Blue Jays has recently led him to start writing at JFtC.  When not working at his day job or driving his two teenage sons to their sporting events Jason is usually reading, listening, watching or now writing about baseball.